By Chip Hanlon

Sure, there has recently been a drop in crude oil demand and the IEA has predicted slightly lower demand growth of just 1% for 2009, but the demand-side slowdown doesn't measure up at all to what we've seen in most industrial commodities, demand for which has truly gotten hammered.

Mostly, oil's fall is about the rally in the U.S. dollar. Don't agree? I could be wrong, but the charts below seem simple enough to my eyes (h/t to Steve Saville on the idea):

2-year charts of Crude/USD:

(charts above courtesy of stockcharts.com) 

Bottom line: your opinion of where the dollar is headed next should be the primary driver behind your view of when/if to re-enter oil trades.