Fed signals it’s done cutting rates, expert says PDF Print E-mail
04/30/2008

By Matt Padilla (The Orange County Register)

Mortgage rates likely will stay put from here now that the Federal Reserve has signaled it’s done cutting a key short-term interest rate, said Jack Kyser, chief economist of the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., which also tracks O.C.

Kyser said the language in the Fed’s statement about higher energy and other commodity prices and that “uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high” are clues its quarter-point cut in the federal funds rate today to 2 percent will be its last. He also pointed to two of 10 members voting against the cut (Richard W. Fisher and Charles I. Plosser) as further proof the Fed is done. (To read the full statement CLICK HERE.)

“I would say they are probably going to hold steady unless something really bad happens,” Kyser said.

Mortgage rates will likely move in a narrow range as investors accept a tad more risk and the Fed sits tight, Kyser said. Of course, there’s no guarantee consumers can actually get a loan at a rate they can afford, he said.

“The days of pulse loans are long gone — if you had a pulse you got a loan,” Kyser said.

But not all experts agreed the Fed is done.

Chip Hanlon, president of investment advisor Delta Global Advisors in Huntington Beach, said he had hoped for stronger language from the Fed on halting rate cuts and is concerned by the Fed’s focus on weak economic activity.

“To me it seemed like a statement that left the door open in as many directions as they could,” Hanlon said.

Hanlon blames the Fed for causing the credit and housing bubbles, for stoking inflation and for a weak dollar.

The best course now is to let the housing market correct even if prices fall further and home builders collapse, he said.

Readers should take no note of the Fed’s language that it expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, Hanlon said.

“They always say that. The words don’t have any meaning,” Hanlon said. “There is more comedy in their statement. They have seen improvement in core inflation. That’s because the Fed’s definition of core has nothing to do with the real world; it excludes food and energy. Two things I absolutely use every day are food and energy.”

 
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