Somehow, sometime this year, crop prices will hit a peak. Most agricultural analysts and traders can agree on that once they look up from their charts and tune out the noise of the pits.

Asking when the market will get there provokes clattering discord, but there's striking agreement on this: There are still bushels of money to be made by going long on commodities.

Oil and gold take most of the bows when commodities rally, but 2007 was a great year to own contracts on Chicago Board of Trade staples such as wheat, soybeans and corn. Wheat prices doubled during the year, soybeans nearly so. Corn's gains during 2007 were modest, but the prices are up 40 percent from lows attained during the summer. And all are trading near their highest levels in years.

The wheat move was so great that it caused farmers to shift acreage from corn, previously untouchable because of demand by every source from China to ethanol plants. As a result, analysts see a contraction in U.S. corn acreage that will support further price hikes in 2008.

Bill Biedermann, senior vice president at the McHenry brokerage and researcher Allendale Inc., sees corn hitting $5.30 a bushel. (The March contract closed Friday at the Board of Trade at $4.6675) But he said bad weather could send it to $7. He also said soybeans should have room to grow from Friday's January contract close of $12.4950.

Many factors are behind what Biedermann said could be the fourth great "grain robbery" in recent years. The first three were the years of Russian buying in the 1970s, the "gasohol" craze of the late '70s (sound similar to ethanol?) and the great Chinese-led market of the 1990s.

As the year wears on, the market will produce opportunities for short sellers, he said. "But right now, the trend is up. You can see the orders in the pits to buy on breaks."

Vic Lespinasse, analyst for the Illinois Grain division of Cytrade Financial, said high oil prices make biofuels more attractive, thus helping crop prices. He also sees index funds stepping up investments in commodities. Wheat has the greatest risk of a price drop, but crops overall "certainly have the potential to go higher, maybe a lot higher."

Last week, Purdue University economist Chris Hurt said ethanol's appetite will put a strain on corn availability for 2008 and 2009. In addition, Goldman Sachs Group and Deutsche Bank are advising clients to keep buying corn and soybeans despite near-record prices.

Goldman said it expects soybeans to rise 29 percent in 2008, predicting it will be the best investment in commodities.

It all could be one of those rock-hard assurances that the fates delight in cracking. Biedermann said higher grain prices are causing a hardship for meat processors, pushing some to close. In time, that could point to reduced demand.

Also, weather is the great unknown. Currently, dry conditions in South America are adding to the support for soybeans.

Look for more traders to short the market when spring hits the Northern Hemisphere, but they'll take a long hard look at a weather map before they do.

HUFF AND PUFF: There's an economic way to look at everything, including smoking, now banned in most public places in Illinois. Nachum Sicherman, economics professor at Columbia University, has completed a study of smokers showing that their wages rise more slowly over the years than those of non-smokers. He also concludes that smokers focus more on short-term thinking and place less value on their economic future than non-smokers do.

"Smokers, presumably because they are more present-oriented, are more likely to self-select into jobs that have lower wage growth and invest less in their own human capital," he said. Sounds to me like he's saying smokers are lazy losers, nihilists at best, and vaguely suicidal at worst. I'm just blowing smoke here; complain to him, not to me.

MONKEY MANAGER: All right, this is your last reminder -- from me, anyway. Monday is the deadline for entries to our Sun-Times Monkey Manager stock-picking contest. See if (a) you are a better stock-picker than our favorite monkey mogul, Mr. Adam Monk, and (b) if you can win the contest and get a trip to Mexico courtesy of Apple Vacations. E-mailed entries to This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it must arrive in our system by 5 p.m. Monday. The legal blather is at suntimes.com/monkeymanager. And don't forget to guess the year-end Dow as a tie-breaker.

CLOSING QUOTE: "The House passed HR 3915, which holds mortgage origination companies responsible for the borrower's ability to repay loans while the White House and Treasury Department are using tacit coercion to renegotiate private contracts on adjustable-rate loans. ... And some in Washington, including a few of the candidates for president, have even suggested a 'moratorium' on home foreclosures! Translation to lenders on that whopper: If you get stiffed by a borrower, you have no recourse! Well, who on Earth would lend in that environment?" --Michael Pento, senior market strategist, Delta Global Advisors